Introduction
Climate change has and will impact agriculture. Throughout the past century we have lost agricultural land due to sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, and severe changes in weather, but in the next 80 years this will increase. The maps below show how the landscape has changed in regards to agriculture since 1938. Losing our agriculture would not only have an impact economically but culturally as well because it is a big part of life on the Eastern Shore, especially in Wicomico County. The focus area shown below was chosen because it is closest to water and will likely be effected by sea level rise within the next 50 to 100 years. While the amount of agricultural land may not have changed too much, the number of farms in Wicomico County have rapidly decreased. In 1935 there were 2,635 farms in the county and now there are only 510 farms [1]. The decrease in numbers is due to more industrial farms and development, but we will see saltwater intrusion and sea level rise impacting Wicomico County more by 2050.
1938The land that was agricultural fields in 1938. In this area in 1938 there were 12.13 square miles of agricultural land.
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2010The land that was agricultural fields in 2010. In this area in 2010 there were 10.23 square miles of agricultural land.
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1938 vs 2010The difference between the agricultural fields in 1938 and 2010. There was a total loss of about 2 square miles or 11% of agricultural land within this area.
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RICK ABEND
Rick Abend, president of "The Friends of Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge" in Dorchester County, has noticed the effects of climate change on his own personal farm near Madison Bay. During an interview, he nodded, sighed, and said “yep, yep, on the east end of it.” When the tide gets really high, it floods his fields; “and what I see is that where I planted my buffer strips at the edge of the highway, that end of it is not growing very well because it gets saltwater on it.” If it rains before the high tide, the effects are not as bad because the ground becomes saturated and the saltwater rolls right off. However, “if it’s a drought and the ground is dry and we get a flood, it’ll ruin that ground for years.” He says he usually jokes when someone asks if his property near the Bay is waterfront: "My reply is always sometimes!" He also mentioned that there are ghost forests (above) of loblolly pine on the Harriet Tubman National Park property about a mile down the road past his farm… “It’s comin’,” he says [2].
As the sea level continues to rise, this is what we may expect for our farm fields here in Wicomico County as well.
Loss of Agricultural Lands Due to Sea Level Rise
Agriculture is an important economic and cultural part of Wicomico County, but we are likely to lose agricultural land due to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion. While we have not fully seen the impacts yet, if the sea level rise models are right and the sea level rises 2 feet by 2050 and 4 feet by 2100, then we will in fact lose some of our coastal agricultural land. Sea level rise is already occurring rapidly in many areas and an effect of sea level rise is saltwater intrusion, which is when salt water from the seas gets into the soil and causes the soil salinity to increase to levels where plants are no longer able to grow. This is a big part of the problem when it comes to sea level rise because it can cause crop loss and threatens food security in low lying areas. Saltwater intrusion and sea level rise could be catastrophic for coastal agricultural land if we do not change the way we treat the world. Through looking at nearby counties as examples we are able to see what our future in Wicomico County could look like and hopefully be able to better prepare to fight against climate change.
The land uses of many areas in Wicomico County have changed due to sea level rise. What was once marsh is now underwater and we are losing the marshy buffer between agricultural land and the brackish water. These buffers can be seen in the images above. You can also tell where areas are starting to become more marshy. The buffers are what have protected us thus far, but now they are almost gone and any additional sea level rise will directly impact the agricultural land. The coastal agricultural lands in Egypt are also in danger “a 1m sea-level rise would affect 6 million people in Egypt, with 12% to 15% of agricultural land lost, 13 million in Bangladesh, with 16% of national rice production lost, and 72 million in China and "tens of thousands" of hectares of agricultural land.” [3] This could easily lead to decreased food security throughout the world.
"Each week the world loses an area of land the size of Manhattan to salt degradation, thanks to poor soil management, bad drainage, and other problems."
-Tim Radford
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While we are losing land to sea level rise, we are also losing agricultural land to saltwater intrusion. As stated earlier, saltwater intrusion is when salt water gets into the soil after a flooding event or when saltwater gets into freshwater aquifers, thus decreasing the crop yield to almost nothing. This is one of the biggest problem for coastal agricultural lands. "Each week the world loses an area of land the size of Manhattan to salt degradation, thanks to poor soil management, bad drainage, and other problems." [4] In some areas of the world saltwater intrusion is occurring 20 miles inland due to saltwater getting into the aquifers. Many deltas are likely to be affected because they are surrounded by bodies of water that are mainly saltwater. Wicomico County is in trouble for the same reason, we are surrounded by saltwater that, if the sea level continues to rise as expected, will get into our aquifers and cause shortages of drinking water and irrigation for our agricultural lands.
In order to find out more about saltwater intrusion and the massive impacts that it will have we can look at other countries dealing with the same issue. Bangladesh and Vietnam are already starting to lose large portions of their agricultural land because of this problem, due to their many river deltas and extensive coastlines. In Bangladesh it is "estimated that increased soil salinity, both in coastal and inland areas, may result in a decline in rice yield by 15.6 percent, thus reducing the income of the affected farmers significantly" [5]. The brackish water in Bangladesh is turning the land that was once fertile into a saline swamp where no vegetation grows. Most of the area that is affected is less than 5 feet above sea level, meaning that they are in danger of being underwater within the next century [6].Even the areas that are not underwater will be affected due to saltwater intrusion.
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References
- Census of Agriculture Historical Archive. (n.d.). Retrieved May 6, 2018, from http://agcensus.mannlib.cornell.edu/AgCensus/getVolumeOnePart.do?year=1935&part_id=752&number=23&title=Maryland
- Personal communication, Rick Abend, president of The Friends of Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge, 28 March 2018, Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge Visitor Center.
- CLIMPAG | CLIMATE CHANGE | Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Populations and Agriculture. (n.d.). Retrieved May 6, 2018, from http://www.fao.org/nr/climpag/pub/eire0047_en.asp
- Salt's poisonous effect is growing threat to crops. (2015, October 07). Retrieved May 6, 2018, from https://climatenewsnetwork.net/salts-poisonous-effect-is-growing-threat-to-crops/
- Food security threatened by sea-level rise. (2017, January 18). Retrieved May 6, 2018, from https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170118082423.htm
- Rising sea levels threaten agriculture. (2015, December 01). Retrieved May 6, 2018, from http://www.irinnews.org/report/75094/bangladesh-rising-sea-levels-threaten-agriculture